acestocksplayer
Want to make a prediction about where the Dow Industrials Index (30 large cap stocks) is going in 2018?

Go ahead and post your prediction here! Or if members want to discuss other markets besides the Dow, just start your own topic in this category!
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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
Here's my prediction on the Dow....posted on January 1, 2018

The Dow is very overbought on the RSI-9 graph of the monthly chart which is of concern to me. Of course, when a market is trending, the RSI can remain overbought for a very long time--RSI tells us that the overbought market is due for a correction, but it can't really tell us WHEN that will happen. 

The MACD histo bars (9,20,7) have leveled off somewhat from the spring of 2017, but they remain steadfastly in positive territory...so no sell signals there...yet. 

Simply looking at the long period of rally (expansion) since the last serious correction (shown by the parabola cup bases), the last base was in the period of 2008 to 2012. So, since 2012 -- over 5 year now -- the Dow has been on a steady course higher...

The multi-year chart below is in logarithmic form, meaning that the higher results of the last few years don't look to steep on this basis (logarithmic is similar to percentage increases rather than whole number increases), so don't let that fool you. If this chart were not in log form, the rally of the last 5 years would look much steeper on this chart...

One thing in favor of the Bulls is that the last serious base (2008-2012) was a base re-set since the low of the base was lower than the previous large base (from the dot-com era), and base re-sets can sometimes mean that the next correction base won't be so bad...that remains to be seen, of course, but I thought I would mention it.

The other thing is that this current bull market is close to being the longest in US history-- it has been supported by easy money policies at the FED, but the FED will now be going through some serious quantitative tightening in 2018 with the sales of bonds held by the FED along with expected rising interest rates...so we will have a double whammy from the FED in 2018...can the economy withstand this double hit? Perhaps, because the new tax reform takes effect today, and some are predicting that lower taxes will continue to drive the US economy. We shall see.

My own prediction is that the Dow will take a serious hit sometime in 2018 -- I think the period of spring and summer might be most vulnerable for various reasons-- but then the Dow might re-cover some by late this year-- but overall, I expect the Dow to finish lower by around 15% compared to the 24,719 mark as of the last day of 2017. So, my prediction is the Dow will finish at around 20,500 to 21,000 but we could see a mid-year dip that takes the Dow as low as the top of the brief early 2016 correction which was at around 18,300 or so.

Of course, predictions a year out are not easy to make...I looked at some of my 2017 predictions in the category marked 2017 Predictions by Members, and I can see I was off quite a bit on most predictions....2017 was quite a bullish year, and quite unexpected in some ways, I think...with very little volatility. I have a hard time believing that we can have two years straight of low volatility!   

Anyone else care to make a prediction?       

Dow Jones Industrials ($INDU) Monthly chart - 30 years view

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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Supermacd
2018 Will be a year of increased volatility and turmoil. The likely cause will be the exposure of and extent of corruption we have been subjected to our entire lives. Trumps swamp draining agenda will bring fear to many as most only know of a weakening and corrupt America. My belief is that Trump will be able to execute what Kennedy was planning to do which will return power back to the people. The satanic worshiping globalist will be brought to justice and their corrupt institutions will be gutted. The FBI first followed by the CIA and then the big kahuna of the Federal reserve.
Whatever happens near term does not change the fact that the markets will be more than 2x higher within the next 10 years due to real growth and a return to real money.

The VIX is bottoming quarterly and already rising monthly. Expect high volatility spikes and moments of great fear.
W/M/W VIX Charts.
VIX.png 
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Littleshark
What I learned from my past tries at predicting the future ,,, is that I can't ...

so in 2018 ,,, I will just concentrate on buying good chart set ups:

> at the right side of inverted H&S patterns(especially the break out above the neckline ~ a successful retest of the neckline as support is even better)  ,,,

> at the right side of price Consolidation of Gains cups ,,,

> at the right side of "W" patterns(especially when the right bottom of the "W" prints as a higher low ~ actual or in Bollinger Band Language) ,,,

> at the completion of WEEKLY "3 Candlestick Reversal Patterns"(3CRP) ,,,

> at breakouts up from a cup's handle or a "W" handle ...

>>> as those seem to be where the bears are running "to cover" ... and the bulls are charging up hill ...

>>> and if the stock patterns are aligned with the sector's trend ,,, that will be a big plus ... Old Mal used to say: "Sector first ~ and then drill down into the sector to find the best stocks to play."

My 2018 prediction is that I will be a successful trader following that plan ...
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slamminsam
Ace, Shark, Super.  I started analyzing the p/f counts for six major groups.  I came up with upside objectives.  Whether they will come this year or not is undetermined at this time, but the good news is.....all of them are....UP.  Here goes guys.  I had the most trouble with the Dow, but I did come up with Dow 29,000.  That should make a lot of people happy, right?  Here's five more major indexes (don't laugh):  The Nasdaq  8100;  RUT 2700.  NYA  15,000   SPY 2800   SPX 3100.  So....have fun guys.  The fun is just getting started.  They will probably say it was "The Donald" who was the cause of all this goodness, huh?  But we know better.

I analyzed this stuff in about 20 minutes using P/F charts on stockcharts.

Good trading, guys!  Green!

The Slammer
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