PNG
Looking for correction in first 1/2 of 2017
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Koog
I would like to make a prediction of some substance PNG, something like "Dow 10,000" ... But That's 50% .... Point is at these lofty heights (Dow 20,000) i can only agree that a correction seems imminent, but with a new administration, its hard for me to get a vision of what to expect for the next 6 month..... [confused]  
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PNG
Koog, that's why I didn't go much more specific.  The market has continued to surprise to the upside so while generally I'm of the stated opinion, there's many significant influences currently - new administration (president elect team) has stated that tax (relief) changes will occur very quickly (first half).    While some say that the market has a mind of its own (and I agree), its clear that while that being true, the market definitely pays homage to massive infusions to the general economy (at least initially) - case and point ZIRP, etc.
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Littleshark
"The last shall be first & the first shall be last" ... or "Markets always return to the mean" from overbought or oversold excesses ... on a PE basis ~ markets are fully valued now ... 
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Littleshark
"The last shall be first & the first shall be last" ... or "Markets always return to the mean" from overbought or oversold excesses ... on a PE basis ~ markets are fully valued now ... 
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acestocksplayer
All of you make good points, imho!

Shark, your comments about the high PE of the market makes some sense to me, especially if the E part (earnings) doesn't catch up to the price movement....

Also, the strong dollar is putting great pressure on foreign currencies....I am most concerned that the Chinese Yuan could get marked down significantly some day soon, and that not only could rock the markets, it could prompt Trump to tweet that China is manipulating its currency, and that might create a death spiral to the markets? 
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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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PNG
LS, I'm adding to your comment "Markets are fully valued" from an S&P 500 perspective.   

here's the details

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Current Shiller PE Ratio: 28.05 +0.13 (0.46%)
Mean:15.63 
Median:14.64 
Min:5.31(Dec 1917)
Max:123.73(May 2009)

Caveat on the "Max" number - I don't see it represented in the chart below so there's an erroneous piece of data here somewhere - either charts wrong or Max is wrong...

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

S&P_PE.jpg 
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Littleshark
Nice info on PE's PNG !!!


I "think ???" that the new Congress convened yesterday ???

I "think ???" Trump gets sworn in as President on Jan.20 ???

He has promised to do a lot of stuff on his first day in office !!!

what effect will Friday Jan.20 ~ Monday Jan.21 have on the Markets ???

best to be hedged if you have open bets at that time ???


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Littleshark
Nice info on PE's PNG !!!


I "think ???" that the new Congress convened yesterday ???

I "think ???" Trump gets sworn in as President on Jan.20 ???

He has promised to do a lot of stuff on his first day in office !!!

what effect will Friday Jan.20 ~ Monday Jan.21 have on the Markets ???

best to be hedged if you have open bets at that time ???


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PNG
An article along same lines.

Synopsis:

The S&P500 P/E is already trading at elevated levels and stock prices are expensive in both absolute and relative terms.

Strong USD, higher inflation and higher yields are surely going to hurt US companies' results and keep the downwards trend of the S&P500 EPS.

The post election rally is losing steam and the hype that the elected president identity has caused may hit reality real soon.

After ~8 years of ZIRP The monetary policy has changed course into a tightening mode.

Buying stocks at the current situation and valuation is nothing but a blind, following the herd, wishful thinking.



http://seekingalpha.com/article/4034402-u-s-equity-markets-seem-ready-pullback-deserve-one?auth_param=11s29h:1c6rllr:c69001f34daca6f1a339a9ff51e21bc6&uprof=45&dr=1

We have our own additions to this list 

return to mean ....
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Littleshark
EARNINGS SEASON ~ gonna make the Markets fall ???

especially Retail ~ since Macy's & Kohl just warned about poor Nov. & Dec. sales ...

find a shopping mall REIT to short ??? ,,, because Sears is closing 150 more stores & selling $1billion of real estate ...


does Sears & Wahlmart sell a LOT of foreign made goods ??? ,,, will TRUMP import duties hurt their business ???
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Littleshark
EARNINGS SEASON ~ gonna make the Markets fall ???

especially Retail ~ since Macy's & Kohl just warned about poor Nov. & Dec. sales ...

find a shopping mall REIT to short ??? ,,, because Sears is closing 150 more stores & selling $1billion of real estate ...


does Sears & Wahlmart sell a LOT of foreign made goods ??? ,,, will TRUMP import duties hurt their business ???
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acestocksplayer
Littleshark wrote:
EARNINGS SEASON ~ gonna make the Markets fall ???

especially Retail ~ since Macy's & Kohl just warned about poor Nov. & Dec. sales ...

find a shopping mall REIT to short ??? ,,, because Sears is closing 150 more stores & selling $1billion of real estate ...


does Sears & Wahlmart sell a LOT of foreign made goods ??? ,,, will TRUMP import duties hurt their business ???

________________________________

http://www.Bloomberg.com had a story today about riots and looting at several Wal-Mart stores in Mexico because the citizens south of the border are upset with high gasoline prices....gasoline is 20% higher down there since January 1st. BTW, they call the stores down there as "WalMex"....notice the implication there? A US retailer using the name "Wall-Mex" in the new age of Donald! Maybe WalMex needs a name change before the citizens do more damage to their stores? Hmmmmmm...
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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