acestocksplayer
JANUARY 2019  

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
HAPPY NEW YEAR, EVERYONE....!  ÃƒÆ’°Å¸ËœÅ 

Well, the major market indexes finally got a little Santa rally in the last 3 trading days of the year, but it was a very late rally, and I believe this past December was the worse one since the Great Depression....

Of course, one month is not necessarily a trend, but then again, the steep year-end sell-off got going in earnest in early October...so, it's not like December was just the start of it...so, what does 2019 hold for us? Last year, I put up a special board where members could make their predictions, but only a few of us did....and yes, I know it's almost sure folly to try and guess what the markets might look 12 months for now...although it looks like my predictions were fairly spot on a year ago...but the year before, my predictions were off by quite a lot....

So, anyone who wants to make a prediction for 2019 can put it right here on our January 2019 board this year 🎯....I might put up my own prediction later today, but I am fixing to go out with the family to celebrate at a local restaurant....maybe later....

But I leave the board with this WEEKLY DOW CHART which shows how our current sell-off situation compares with some other biggies that we have had over the past dozen years...

$INDU WEEKLY CHART (12 Years Look-Back) 

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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PNG
Well, you got me again Ace - don't recall a 10-80 down cross, although, you've probably mentioned it before.  Glad to have found your board.  Happy New Year!  Its the pros you say that use 10 40 and 80 - good to know.

Do you have a chart of the 1987 crash for comparison?
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Littleshark
Crossed another thing off my bucket list..had a stroke. Took ambulance 🚑 to 'big' city. I'm ok might get out Thursday. Will stay at daughter's and come home Sat or Sun. No permanent damange. Probably won't hear from me again until Sun.
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slamminsam
Lil Shark - I'm very sorry to hear this.  What happened?  I sincerely hope it's not too bad.  I heard if they catch it quick enough.....damage might not be too bad.  Do what the doc says and get well soon.  Stay in hospital - they'll take care of you.  Keep us informed. You'll probably have to change your eating habits.   We will be praying for you!     Sam
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acestocksplayer
SHARK....so sorry to hear about your mis-fortune, but as SAM says, you are really fortunate if they caught it in time. Judging by your post, it seems you have your wits about you, so hoping everything is gonna be okay for you. Follow the doc's orders and get yourself on the mend! We will be praying for a speedy recovery for you!    ðŸ¬ðŸ¬ðŸ¬
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
PNG wrote:
Well, you got me again Ace - don't recall a 10-80 down cross, although, you've probably mentioned it before.  Glad to have found your board.  Happy New Year!  Its the pros you say that use 10 40 and 80 - good to know.

Do you have a chart of the 1987 crash for comparison?


PNG- Sure, for instance, the chart master on CNBC, Carter Worth often mentions the 10, 40 and 80 MA lines on his weekly charts....and when converting weekly to daily, the 10 week = 50 day MA on the daily, and the 40 week = 200 MA on the daily....and the 80 week = 400 day MA on the daily charts. So, these numbers are consistent with each other on different timeframes.

BTW, what is "the magic" behind these numbers? Well, the 50 day is "the decimal base" of the daily charts....remember, there are 5 trading days in a normal week, so 10 weeks x 5 days = 50 days. Since our modern number system is a decimal counting system, it makes sense that "the BASE line" should be the 50 day line which is based on 10 weeks of trades.  The 200 day line represents 40 weeks of trading, which is roughly equivalent to 3 quarters of a year of trading days (remember, there are 5 trading days in most weeks), and so that represents 3 full quarters of earnings reports within that time span....and the 400 day is simply double that number to give a long term perspective. Also, some traditional S&P daily charts use the 65 day line instead of the 50 day line (such as those published by Dow Jones Company), and the reason for that is a full quarter of earnings is about 13 weeks, and do 13 x 5 days a week= 65 days.

PNG, here is the 1987 Crash Chart on the Dow....per your request.

Dow Chart for 1987 Crash       

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
As I say, Carter Worth often shows the 10, 40 and 80 MA lines on his WEEKLY Charts....

Here is a recent video he did on CNBC....he, like many of us here, has been consistently calling for worsening markets the past 3 months based on TA...contrast the predictions made here and by many professional TA's with the fundamentalists who continue to hype "hopium" the last few months....it's easy to see that good TA work has led to many profitable trades and caution in a falling market....

As Carter also points out, the road to a quick recovery to new highs is mostly wishful thinking...it can take years in some cases....look at the recovery period in the 1987 Crash above...notice that Dow bumped along the 600 MA line for many months after the crash before it finally got to the point where it began to lift.....and it took about 3 years before the Dow went to new highs off that crash, and that was one of the quicker recoveries in history. 

ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
CHINA CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI IS A MISS....!

Asian and world stock markets fall....US Futures reverse from Dow +100 to Dow -217 on New Year's night....

At midnight, the Dow futures are -217....

Well, I wish I had all 3 of those VXX Calls now, but the bullish action on Monday afternoon forced me to sell one of those calls back so I could avoid suffering "a large bath"....but at least, I still have two of those calls....

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI MISS  ÃƒÂ°Ã…¸ËœÂ³

By the way, the QQQ daily chart showed another black hangman candle right at the 13 EMA (momentum) line on Monday...a generally bearish candle and at a key resistance point!

QQQ daily chart

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
HISTORY LESSON...for those who are interested....

This video lasts close to an hour. I am not predicting another 1929, but it's a good sobering lesson to pay attention to what can happen for those who are not prepared.

I have to be in meetings on Wednesday morning....hope to be back here by mid-day tomorrow....

THE WALL STREET CRASH OF 1929





Dow Chart from 1929 to 1932
[dow-jones-crash-1929-bear-market-2018-12-29-macrotrends] 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
SPOT GOLD IS HIGHER BY ALMOST $10 A TROY OUNCE....

Maybe those NUGT, AEM and IAU calls I own will start to accelerate higher on Wednesday? 😉
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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WallStreetKid
Littleshark wrote:
Crossed another thing off my bucket list..had a stroke. Took ambulance 🚑 to 'big' city. I'm ok might get out Thursday. Will stay at daughter's and come home Sat or Sun. No permanent damange. Probably won't hear from me again until Sun.


LittleShark,

Praying for your speedy recovery.  Just take it easy and the rest your doctors recommend.  Looking forward to see you back soon. Please update us when you can.  God Bless!
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slamminsam
Wall Street is starting off the New Year to the downside.  I've got a long term support line in play.......The Buy Signal was right around SPY 234 to 235 a few days ago.  I would raise stop to 238....SPY closed near 250.  The mkt could easily come back down to test recent lows and we could STILL turn around and head higher.  The beginning of the year can be very volatile in both directions.  Gold has a nice base and is moving up nicely.  If my long term support line is broken.......we should all know what that means.  If mkt goes back down to test the recent lows......and volume shrinks......and the mkt holds up and doesn't keep tanking.....then we could just as easily head back up.  Time will tell.  I still hate bear markets and hope this early downtick doesn't last too long......if it breaks down even more......long term that wouldn't be good at all.  If the Dow goes down to 22,000......and holds up....that would be OK too.  We will know all this stuff before January is over.  Good trading guys......and we all should take time for a prayer for Littleshark.........Sam
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PNG
Retest with a lower low is what some are calling for.

LS, keep us posted when you can, likely need lots of R&R and no mkt stress.
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CMAC38
Wow Littleshark, prayers and best wishes for your speedy, healthy return.
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acestocksplayer
I have ROkU, AZUL, RIG and gold stocks higher...

I sold the remaining 2 VXX calls about an hour ago, but missed this morning's Vix rally as I was in a meeting and the rally fell short of my sell limit price....I had to settle for a lot less...bummer.😑
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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PLAY_HRD
happy-new-year-2019.jpg 
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CMAC38
Two thumbs up PLAY_HRD👍👍.

I want to see those $$ $ign$ as well.

Green Trades.
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PLAY_HRD
ls, Glad to hear you're doing well afterwards... I'll be sending some positive vibes your way buddy!
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slamminsam
Looks like it was an early morning shake-out.  I'm thinking Littleshark is gonna be OK.  Maybe we can now expect 300-pt volatility in the Dow on a daily basis.....gonna be hard to get used to......until proven otherwise.....bulls may eventually come back today and get back into the up-channel.  I'm going out for lunch with my cousin and his wife.....We'll be back later.  Hold the fort......I really glad the bears didn't take control.......the Slammer
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acestocksplayer
POT STOCKS....  ðŸ˜œ

I bought calls on CGC and CRON.

CGC is breaking out of a falling wedge on the daily chart....

CRON has a Triple-cross buy signal and is forming the right side of a cup-n-handle pattern on its daily chart....

I bought in the money Feb 15th calls.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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PLAY_HRD
CGC.png $39-40 upside target seems like a logical move...  🧐
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PNG
PH, you have any sources for these patterns as far as percentage of time they pan out and what the targets are.  I've seen reference to that in the past but never found a source.  Also, what's the rule for how high this particular pattern should resolve to?
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PLAY_HRD
PNG wrote:
PH, you have any sources for these patterns as far as percentage of time they pan out and what the targets are.  I've seen reference to that in the past but never found a source.  Also, what's the rule for how high this particular pattern should resolve to?


Hello PNG, I do not have historical data that shows the success of my charts or my opinions on future prices.  Often I share what I'm seeing so others can understand how I trade and can add their opinions... which helps me improve my own trading.  As for how these patterns resolve, I think Ace would be a better source of information.
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PNG
Ok, thanks PH.

Here's an example of what I was referring to.

"Bull Flag Pattern (67.13% Success) and Bear Flag Pattern (67.72% Success)"

https://samuraitradingacademy.com/7-best-price-action-patterns/
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