acestocksplayer
JUNE 2019  

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
Well, here we are in the month of JUNE....

And how about that wild month of May we just went through? I read a headline somewhere that said that May 2019 was "the 2nd worse Month of May" for stock investors in over 50 years! Wow! ...and usually, the month of May is one of the poorer performing months, so that is saying something....

I was looking back at my comments I put up in an early post on May 1st....here is an excerpt of what I said back on that day and notice the sentences that I highlighted, because I was one of the few voices who disagreed with mainstream thinking that we were going to get a deal with China:

However, numerous top business sites like Barron's ( http://www.barrons.com&nbsp😉 and MarketWatch ( http://www.marketwatch.com&nbsp😉 have pointed out that the fundamentals like earnings and revenue growth have slowed down this year, but that the PE multiple is what is expanding now. The PE multiple typically EXPANDS when the FED is on pause or dropping interest rates, as we have now. The worry is that we are being set up for a much stronger down-draft once investors figure out that maybe they are over-paying for their equities purchases....but in the meantime, it's let the good time roll! 

And from an investment perspective, many retail traders have remained on the sidelines or are participating in the market advance in only a small way, and it's this lack of full-force buy-in by the retail crowd that keeps this market climbing the Wall of Worry....and right now, that Wall seems to be worried a bit more about China (once again) as recent economic statistics like PMI Manufacturing Index are slowing down....and then on Tuesday, we heard Trump's chief negotiator, Paul Mulvaney say that a final decision with China on the trade negotiations is expected within two weeks or less.

Mulvaney said we either will strike a very good deal with China, or we won't! It's the "or we won't" part that seems kind of scary to the markets....and despite all the promises of a potential good deal, there is one thing in the back of my mind, and that is that TRUMP holds all the cards. Trump believes that the US economy can move ahead with or without China, and so far, he's been more right about that anyone expected. And Trump is trying to stay true to his base as the 2020 elections heat up, and so he may nix any final deal with China if he's not pleased about anything. If anyone thinks that Trump would not walk away from a final deal with China,then think about what happened when Trump traveled 8,000 miles to Asia to meet Kim Jung Un, the North Korean leader, and then walked away from signing a final deal with him as everyone (and especially the news media) had expected. To me, Trump is the wild card in these negotiations, and even though his negotiating team may believe they are close to a deal, only Trump will decide if that will be the case. Trump likes to project power, and when I think back to his days on the TV show, "The Apprentice," it was this aura of power that made the show so special. Make no mistake in understanding the man, but he likes the feeling of power, and he knows that saying "no deal" can sometimes make him seem even more powerful when he wants to make a point to everyone around him.  

One of the major sticking points in those negotiations is whether the US will agree to end its current tariffs with China (mostly 10% tariffs), and the White House has not said that it would. My view is that Trump believes that the current tariffs should remain in place because even with those tariffs, the US trade deficit with China remains largely negative. This to me, is one major reason that I am concerned that Trump may not allow a final deal to be reached with China.

The traditional view by most academic economists is that trade wars lead to slower growth and even recessions-- and especially if tariffs are being used as economic weapons. In their view, Trump is playing with fire, and in the near term, the tariffs may lead to short term gains for US workers and the local economy, but in the long run, the tariffs will cause more harm than good to the US as well as the rest of the world. Those theories may be put to the test in the coming months....we shall see.  

Down below, I have posted the MCHI daily chart which is an ETF that tracks the China A-shares index....and as we know, China's stock market has been mostly on the up-swing this year on the positiive belief that China and the US will come to terms on a major trade agreement, but look closely at the MCHI chart, and notice that within the last few trading days, MCHI dropped under its long-term up-trend line and the current price level is under the 13 EMA line and also in the lower channel of the Bollinger Bands. Technically, the MCHI is starting to look worrisome in my opinion....so, let's watch to see what happens in this critical time of the year....

So, will it once again prove to be true that we should "Sell in May and go away....?"  ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’ƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚°ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’¢â‚¬Â¦ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¸ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’¢â‚¬Â¹ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Â¦ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…“³

NOTE: As you can see, the MCHI (China) chart dropped big time in the month of May!

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
SO, WITH SUCH A POOR MONTH OF MAY, HOW WILL THE MONTH OF JUNE SHAPE UP....?  ÃƒÆ’°Å¸ËœÂ²

Typically, during the long cyclical bull market....and even over the longer secular bull market, when you get a bad month like we just had, it often sets up a rebound the following month...mostly because so many investors have fleed that it brings valuations down to a more reasonable level that it entices fresh money back into the market....

So, will we have a rebound in the month of June? Yes, there are some oversold signals that point to this possibility, although it can also be said that if we are entering one of those fairly rare periods when everything is going wrong, then this correction could last somewhat longer....

I found a couple of long term picture charts from a STOCKCHARTS member (named Pete Perkurar) and these charts paint a BIG picture view that seems to show that we may be entering into a rather scary sell-off period, but within that down-slide trend, violent upside rebounds are often possible (just to keep the sheeple on their toes!)....

Pete calls this first chart "the history of the Nasdaq" and its a long term monthly chart of the Nasdaq Composite...what's interesting about this chart is that despite all of the bad news events like the 1987 crash, the 2000 and 2008 meltdowns, the LTCM correction, Brexit and so forth, the Nas recently hit new all-time highs....in essence, despite all the bad news, we have had a secular bull market going back for 40+ years! However, do note that the RSI and MACD are coming off extreme overbought levels which peaked in 2018, and the trend in 2019 is DOWN...and on a macro level, it appears we are not done with a market selloff for this year...or even next year (2020)...

History of the Nasdaq Monthly Chart   

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Pete has another interesting chart which he calls "Global Dow- 2 years" and this 2 year chart depicts the relative calm of 2017-18 ( a time with record low volatility) that made every investor feel like they could do no wrong....and then the upheaval of late 2018 and into year 2019!!!. 

But this Global Dow chart paints a pretty scary picture....as it looks like we are in FREE FALL and headed toward a possible re-test of the December low for the top stocks around the world.....he inserted a Fibonacci graph from the December low to the April top...and notice how even the Fib 50 mark failed to hold....things look ominous for world stock markets when viewed on this chart....of course, this is for markets around the world, and it's conceivable that the US market might have a better performance than other markets might....at least, we have to consider that possibility...

Dow Jones Global Dow Daily Chart

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
GOLD STOCKS ON THE REBOUND....

Congrats to the NUGT traders and other gold players who posted good results on Friday on the last day of the MAY board....! I was too busy with day job to do much trading, but I do hold a pair of NEM calls and those are up nicely..... ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’°Å¸Ëœâ€¡

But I also have had my eyes on getting back on board with KL....KIRKLAND GOLD....this phenomenal mining stock has better than 100% EPS growth year over year....and better than 30% annual revenue growth....the daily chart became much more positive with a firm candle above the 50 MA line on Friday...and the stock looks to be building the right side of a cup base....

As the US Treasuries Market moved to new low yields, this is signaling that the FED could give us not just one, but possibly TWO rates cuts this year (or possibly one BIG 50 bips rate cut!).....With TRUMP fighting a trade war with Tariffs, the bond market is begging for FED support....notice that Trump may get his wish for the FED to cut rates soon-- the man is either a genius, or very lucky--but his tariff war is forcing the FED to do his bidding, which means that Trump may be winning on more than one front by ending the endless account deficits with other countries and inducing a major domestic economic recovery supported with lower interest rates...it almost seems like pure genius, so long as it doesn't fall apart with a WAR with CHINA or other bad actors (Iran? North Korea?)....stay tuned!!! Oh, and let's not forget about the DEBT CEILING which needs to be raised by the end of summer or early autumn-- can that be in jeopardy with a bunch of socialists running the US House of Representatives??? ÃƒÆ’°Å¸ËœÂ³ 

If so, then this low yield environment and FED-supported market should serve to weaken the US dollar as time progresses, and the possible breach of bond interest payments due to the DEBT CEILING not getting raised.... and that can only be good news for GOLD TRADERS..... 

KL Daily Chart

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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Littleshark
http://schrts.co/NvqTpAia $USD Friday ,,, but ,,,  http://schrts.co/YHSiWrIN $GOLD is too high above the upper BB Band ... "stair step up" pull back test of 1304.20 likely ~ to get $GOLD back inside 2 deviations from the average line ...

BUT > Notice that the small miners ~ http://schrts.co/IXuMJAWY AUY ~ http://schrts.co/piBjCqYE EXK ~ http://schrts.co/jpyUxWsy ALO ~ are not overbought on their charts yet & have MACD EXCESSES that still NEED TO correct ,,, but are also still considered bear flag traps since the average lines are still bear stacked ='s expect pull backs at declining resistance lines i.e. AUY & EXK ,,, or retest of breached declining average lines for support i.e. ALO (would be a trend change if they hold as support) ...

miner http://schrts.co/HxBuvwkF SBGL is already more then two deviations above the average ,,, normally that would mean a pull back is in order ,,, BUT ,,, average lines id manage to bull stack and volume is great but not excessive ='s this could be what Sam calls a "strong stock" that should be chased (bought) because it is moving up slowly with out gathering to much attention from the Sheeples yet ,,, RSI is rising in the sweet zone indicates price could keep rising for awhile yet ...

Overall ,,, a healthy "stair step up" pull back in $GOLD ,,, could cause a small pause in the miners ,,, as a lower entry point ? ... we'll see Monday ...

Bought http://schrts.co/izphGWTJ AUY at 1.83 Thursday ~ sold at 1.96 Friday ... I would like to buy at 1.88 on a 1.87 gap fill pull back ... will I get the chance next week ? ... one huge clue would be if the ADX red line keeps falling as such a gap fill occurs ! ,,, that would be a very bullish signal ... RSI 40 line would get tested as support then too ... and the blue bars "should" stay at or above the zero line during the pullback if the bulls have taken over control from the bears ...

The steady decline in the ADX red line on EXK, looks even better to me then on AUY ... nice EXK buy volume with out a price gap up move & NEED that MACD EXCESS to correct ... Big Boys were accumulating EXK on May 7 & May 13 & May 17 ='s they will want price to run up above May 7 day high $2.10 ~ where they started accumulating shares ...
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SK
As per Ichimoku Cloud system , LABU daily entered short territory with Lagging span confirmation under cloud and price action under cloud. Conv line under base line. and forward cloud in RED zone
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SK
DOW daily - Almost in short territory except for the lagging span confirmation. Same with SPY and NAS
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SK
FNGU daily in short territory with all confirmation
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SK
GOLD - not there yet for long. With the cloud system, you can capture the 60% when price is trending. Not good for sideway market.
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Littleshark
Thanks for the charts & for the reads ... I don't pretend to understand how to correctly read Itchi ... but learning a little from your chart comments ...

Daily http://schrts.co/eBbRiniC SBGL ,,, I do see the Itchi blue line inverted H&S(IH&S) bottom though ... the last three ORRC lows did NOT get a MACD black/red line cross up ,,, but the IH&S produced one ='s bulls running the show now it seems according to all three chart indicators ...

SK ,,, how would you read the cloud for the entry signal long on SBGL ?

Has a cloud go long buy signal printed yet ?

Or does one have to wait for price to close above the cloud ?

If so ,,, does one also have to wait for the blue line to get above the cloud as confirmation ?
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popeye47
Mike I have been away for awhile but started reading your post this week.
Thanks for the charts and your opinion.
I have a bad bad feeling that Trump is going to shoot himself in the foot with us included in this trade war.
Not only does he have contention with China but now he has decided to take it up with Mexico also.
I can't see anything good happening on this issue.
Just waiting for something close to a bottom and have some cash to put to use.
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acestocksplayer
Hello Popeye....glad to see you have returned!!!  Ã°Å¸ËœÆ’

Not only has Trump thrown daggers at China and Mexico....we now have to add INDIA and TURKEY to the list....

The tweets came out last night after the markets had all closed....

TRUMP YANKS DEVELOPING NATION STATUS FROM INDIA AND TURKEY ! INDIA THREATENS TO RETALIATE   Ã°Å¸ËœÂ³

And now China is hitting back....look at what's happening with Dow component, FED EX (FDX)...

CHINA SENDS WARNING TO USA THAT FEDEX IS NOT DELIVERING PACKAGES ON TIME AND ALLOWING US OFFICIALS TO INSPECT THEM Ã°Å¸ËœÂ«
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
HERE IS THE UPDATED $VIX 30 MINUTES CHART....

An open gap dated from May 13th finally got filled on Friday....there are now two open gaps down below, which implies that at some point, VIX will fall and that will lead to a market rally...but those two gaps have been open a while, so that doesn't mean that VIX is headed lower immediately.....but something to keep an eye on....

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
GOOGL is also in trouble....with the US Justice Department....

This news broke on Saturday morning, after the markets had closed....

ALPHABET (GOOGLE) COULD BE UNDER ANTITRUST INVESTIGATION FROM THE US DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE  ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ°Ã…¸ËœÂ³

However, the Bulls might be able to latch on to some apparent good news on the Mexico tariff situation....???

THE MEXICAN PRESIDENT MIGHT AGREE TO SLOW ILLEGAL MIGRATIONS TO SATISFY TRUMP OVER TARIFFS  ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ°Ã…¸â€˜Â

So, Trump might be forcing Mexico to stop illegal border crossings and WIN A DEAL with MEXICO....so, will the US markets grab on this news on Monday and ignore the bad news on India, China, Turkey and on GOOGL....? Let's not forget about the Rare Earths!

Well, I dunno know....markets can act funny sometimes....by grasping on to one bit of good news while ignoring a bunch of bad news....we shall see! Anything to have a rally and allow Da Boyz to upset the many traders who might have gone short the market on Friday???
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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SK
@Littleshark - Hi Little Shark. Let me try to explain Ichimoku cloud here with my limited knowledge. Chart wise it looks complex but its very SIMPLE 🙂. With this tool. You can see the trend, Support / Resistance all in one place. Everyone trading strategy is different. With the cloud, 1. You can capture 60% of the gain (Not first 20 % at the beginning or the later 20% at the end. If you try to capture those, you may end up in loosing trend. That's the main concept about the clouds to capture majority and not the MAXIMUM
I am using SBGL current chart to explain the components of the clouds and more importantly the trading strategy using the cloud. There will be 2 section 1. Understanding the cloud components and no. 2. Trading Strategy using those components.

1. Understanding the cloud components - There are 5 major components in the cloud. I some of you know already but this is for refresher and reference. Look at them in Blue label on the SBGL chart.

2. Trading Strategy using the cloud.
very simple - When its above the Cloud it's Bullish and when its under the cloud it's bearish and when inside the middle, its decision time (Don't know where it will end up. Don't trade here)

To Enter Bullish Trade following criteria need to meet depending your time frame. I am using SBGL Current Chart. Please look at the label in red to entry and exit.
Following criteria need to be satisfied
A. Price Action needs to be Above the Cloud
B. Forward Cloud must print bullish ( Green in Standard)
C. Conversion line must be above the base Line
D. Lagging Span needs to be above the Cloud

When Do you exit: Some people use Conversion crossing down the Base line ( It may be too early based on you trading time frame)\
Some use closing bellow  Leading Span A ( I prefer this way. little longer term)

Here its is all about 80% of the cloud system in a nut shell. Hope Current SBGL chart can give the clue.


@Little Shark
As of today with the cloud system, Long entry has not been triggered yet for SBGL.
 
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acestocksplayer
HEY DOC....STNE

Say, I just realized that STNE formed a bullish HAMMER CANDLE on its daily chart on Friday....this looks good for my pair of calls! Ã°Å¸ËœÅ½

Thanks again for helping me time the sale of the put on that dip on Friday...now I just need for it to rally a few bucks to make the calls profitable!

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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Littleshark
Everything ~ average lines & chart indicators ~ are sped up to fast settings > http://schrts.co/UFivvwUQ ...

I have not read any of the posts above since my last post yet ...
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Littleshark
Awesome cloud explanation SK ... thank you a lot ... the new education helps make the tool more useful when I see it in your charts from now on ... or when I check Itchi- for my own plays for confirmation signals ...

Let me practice a little:

Cloud defined > http://schrts.co/sJUfwDTp USO short entry last week ... and http://schrts.co/iSyVJgew SPX ... would have helped remove the confusion then ...

http://schrts.co/hMgqdHyj $USD no cloud short signal yet ... 

http://schrts.co/iMXUZRtT TLT has had no cloud sell signal yet since cloud March 18 buy signal ...

> Rare Earth's > http://schrts.co/CNXJGyYp ,,, http://schrts.co/zUrhjubc ,,, http://schrts.co/VbYdABrr < SK ,,, I don't see how to read a pull back entry signal ? - like May 29 when Ace & I both bought below .32 that day & sold next day at .42 ...

> miners ~ no cloud momentum trader long buy signal yet (scalper's may have played the bear flag by other means) > http://schrts.co/btPsCVnY ,,, http://schrts.co/yxWUMGIr ,,, http://schrts.co/iWWDudvK ,,, http://schrts.co/KIzMWdJa ,,,

Cloud is a momentum traders tool it seems ,,, or for help staying in a rocket ...

I wonder if cloud on a minute chart would have been faster & if it would give bear flag scalp entries ?
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Littleshark
STNE in Ace's chart above ,,, two line zone the Feb.19 break out candlestick ... Friday's long tail probed down into that zone looking for support ~ and found it since price rose back up to print the long tail ... ADX red line rising & green line still falling is a negative ... no +D there for now ...
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Littleshark
Littleshark wrote:
Everything ~ average lines & chart indicators ~ are sped up to fast settings > http://schrts.co/UFivvwUQ ...

I have not read any of the posts above since my last post yet ...


Those long tails on top can be immediate term killers > http://schrts.co/MsbQFGtW < find each long tail on top across the chart ,,, and > http://schrts.co/ciUIEGUp ...  http://schrts.co/zBeEKddz ~ they would make me wait for a pull back here ? ... http://schrts.co/JMkJZzUm ... your stock ? ... LABU http://schrts.co/gSvfMEHg ~ March 18 ,,, May 16/17 combo ,,, May 24/28 weekend combo ... find the long tails below ... Ace's http://schrts.co/JZVEBYUp STNE ? ~ pattern repeat > scalp profits if Fast RSI(4) hits the green on a bear flag price bounce ...
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zulu31498
Hello guys,
I'm back to US!
After spending almost two month overseas I'm happy to be here. I noticed that all of you are doing very well. I'm very happy for you guys!
I'm beating myself for not selling IQ before going to Europe and now I'm sitting on the big loss and who knows for how long. Selling now I think does't make sence unless IQ will go drasticely down, but who knows what will happen. Crazy news across all over the world not helping the stock market (unless you are short).
Any way, I'll stop crying for now, lol
PS. Sharky, How are you?
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popeye47
Regarding GOOG.
I have been watching for quite awhile on this stock.
It looks to have some support around 1100 but very strong support at 1000.
I would nibble a little at 1000.
What do you think.
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PNG
In spite of all the regulation that came into being after 2007-2009, here's an eye opener - we still could be subject to a popping bubble.

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/article/A-new-credit-bubble-gets-ready-to-burst-13911193.php
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Littleshark
zulu31498 wrote:
Hello guys,
I'm back to US!
After spending almost two month overseas I'm happy to be here. I noticed that all of you are doing very well. I'm very happy for you guys!
I'm beating myself for not selling IQ before going to Europe and now I'm sitting on the big loss and who knows for how long. Selling now I think does't make sence unless IQ will go drasticely down, but who knows what will happen. Crazy news across all over the world not helping the stock market (unless you are short).
Any way, I'll stop crying for now, lol
PS. Sharky, How are you?


Hi ZULU ... nice to here from you ... I am fine ... except I have had to stop loss out of a lot of trades too ...

Are they mad at us & Trump over in Europe ?
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zulu31498
Hi Shark!
Good to hear from you as well!
Sorry for your stop loss. I know you will recover that sooner or later.
Honestly is better to loose 5-10% then siting like me with over 20% loss as of yesterday.

Lol, The whole Europe can't believe it what is going on with current presidency in US!
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