acestocksplayer
NOVEMBER 2018-  This category is generally reserved for discussions about S&P/ NASDAQ listed stocks and general discussions about stocks priced at $5 or more. It is also a good place to discuss CHARTING (Technical Analysis) on the markets as well as on select stocks. 

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
WELCOME TO THE NOVEMBER BOARD FOR S&P/ NASDAQ STOCK DISCUSSIONS FOR $5 AND HIGHER PRICED STOCKS....

At the end of the October board, Littleshark shared his thoughts on chart reads and options trading....
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Sam ... the other side of the trade is risk/reward management ... 

my dry powder barrel is still small ... half of my money is in the other broker account where I am not enabled to play options ...

10 contracts at 1.07 would mean I am betting most of the available dry powder on one trade ,,, during a time when bulls are in charge ! ... lose on a bet like that & I am done playing options ='s 10 contracts would have been to much risk then ... I couldn't lose to much principle on 1 contract ~ but could possibly make up to 100% ~ $100 ~ with small risk ... 

on the other hand I saw an opportunity & bought one way out the PUT 260 to keep cost down ,,, if I won on the trade the gain would help offset my other under water PUT loss ... 

That trading plan did work ... ='s yes I had a risk/reward plan ,,, and I didn't have an exact sell spot in advance ,,, I wanted 100% ~ but watched the action & had what I thought support & resistance would be on the daily chart as a target guide ... 

> but the sell was based on chart indicators +D / -D macd volume etc. ... 

> the sell was also influenced by life ='s the other side of the trade is that my son had come in the house a bit before my sell and asked me if I could butcher the dead 500# calf for dog food so he could go to work ... 

I had a profit (not as big a profit as I wanted or could have had) but I took it rather then going outside and risking letting the profits turn into a loss while I was outside ... 

I am just trying to make you see Sam ,,, that there are a whole bunch of other factors that go into each trade ... besides the chart read ... 

the chart read is very important ~ with out that one is running completely on hope ... 

but I am not going to risk more then about 1/3 of my options available dry powder on any one option($400 to $500 per option trade) ... and I like to have two separate PUT's going ,,, so I can sell one at a profit ~ because those profits give me some protection against loss on the other PUT that is still in play ... 

risk v/s reward controls the size of my plays ... because no matter how good I get at reading the chart ~ things can change in an instant ='s EXAMPLE > ACE said Trump talking to the reporters made the charts jump BIG in one 5 minute bar & Ace said that cost him profits on his trades Friday ... 

basically my dry powder is to small to make the big sized trades you & me would like to see me make ...  
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
THEN SLAMMIN' SAM SAID BACK TO LITTLESHARK:

Lil Shark - you're doing it the hard way.  I really think you need some help; don't you?  I really suggest The Doc, or Ace help you.  I'm the analyst.....not the trader.  We don't really think alike.  I think more like Doc.  You have to have a certain "sixth sense" to play this game.  I think Ace can help you with time frames too - when to trade certain puts and then switch over.  A lot will happen between now and the end of the year.  I still think 2019 will be a bad year; I'm telling more people to get out of the mkt by the end of the year and sit on the sidelines; most of them think it's un-American to sell short and never have sold short and probably never well either.  The sheeples still have time to get out while the gittin's good, but they won't listen.  The hardest think to do is SELL.  They want to marry stox forever - it don't work that way.

Talk to ya Monday.

Sam
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
THEN PNG ADDED HIS THOUGHTS...

Also, IMO, one doesn't have to be sitting on a put/call/equity all the time.  Pays to be patient and wait for good entry and pounce on good exit or non-greedy exit or acceptable exit or cut losses exit but exit - especially with options - it will all expire worthless, clearly, if one doesn't do this.  If the market turns on you get out of the way.  Wait for key turns, regardless of personal goals, key is to make trades green - any other non-green trade oriented thinking will eat capital.
 
 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
My comments are:

Options tend to be much more sensitive to price movements than stocks are...also, options tend to move ahead of stock prices....an options contract may move higher or lower before the under-lying stock price does, though sometimes, those options price movements will prove to be head-fakes....

Options are most price sensitive when they are OUT OF THE MONEY (OTM)...this is because an OTM options contract has NO INTRINSIC VALUE...it is strictly trading on TIME VALUE and time value is compared against the distance from the STRIKE PRICE...

So, for instance, if someone owns a November 16th (monthly) call on SPY with a $275 strike price (which is $4 out of the money), that option is going to be more sensitive than an option that is in the money, such as the November 16th $270 call.

Also, NOT all options expire worthless...if they are in the money, they are not worthless....although, most of us here don't really want to own an options contract on expiry day, because we might have to exercise the option...so almost always best to sell the option before the expiration, unless you truly want to own the stock (or sell the stock in the case of a put)....statistically, I read that about 17% of options do not expire worthless, although there is also some other statistics that say that closer to 25% of options do not expire worthless....but to PNG's point, yes, most options do expire worthless...but not all! ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’°Å¸ËœÂ

One of the key lessons for me with trading options is that if you want to cut down on price volatility, then try to play options that are IN THE MONEY or at least AT THE MONEY, meaning they are very close in price to your selected STRIKE PRICE...

The second lesson is the EXPIRATION DATE...I tend to buy my options about 40 to 75 days out to expiration... if I buy less than 40 days out, then I tend to be sure that I am trading with IN THE MONEY OPTIONS so that the time value does not become a big issue with my contracts.....if I do anything less than this, then I am truly gambling...and yes, once in a while, I do this type of strategy, and generally, I have paid the price when I attempt to get too adventuresome...! ÃƒÆ’°Å¸ËœÂ³

I know some options traders may wonder why I am buying options that are two to three months out if I only intend to hold the trade for a few days or a week at best, and the reasons above explain why I do this...also, if I guessed wrong on the immediate direction of the underlying stock movement, a longer dated option that is bought in the money tends to hold its value much better and will allow time for my trade to re-cover...a stock trader knows that they can hold their stock indefinitely, sometimes for years, but eventually, they may make their money back if they hold long enough...but the luxury of time is not on the options buyer's side! If your call option drops from in the money to 25% out from the strike price and the options contract expires in 30 days or less, you can almost certainly kiss that money good-bye! ÃƒÂ°Ã…¸Ëœâ€“  

However, the cost of the contract also comes into play...generally, I don't like to bet more than about $800 on any one options trade....this is my comfort level and represents about a 1.5% value of my trading portfolio-- in other words, even if I lose my entire bet one options trade, I can't dent my overall trading portfolio by more than 1.5% on any one trade...and many of my options trades take place at less than $400 a trade.... ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’°Å¸Ëœâ€°

But sometimes, options contracts are very expensive...especially if in the money and on either a very volatile stock or on a very high priced stock...for example, you will never see me trading options on AMZN or GOOGL only because one in-the-money options contract on those stocks exceeds my 1.5% limit... and I tend to avoid options on very volatile stocks because those options premiums tend to be expensive....the person selling options on volatile stocks is more likely to make profits at the expense of those who buy options....I am thinking back to some of the CRYPTO stocks late last year that had ridiculously high premiums...and some of the CANNABIS stocks recently had very expensive premiums, and I avoided them (except for MJ which is an ETF for them)....but I generally believe that sellers (writers) of options tend to profit in situations like these since more options tend to expire worthless, although it can be uncomfortable when you are the seller (writer) and you realize you are on the hook for possibly owning, say TLRY at $150 if you sold an expensive put on TLRY at that strike price when it was at $200 a share...at the time it was at $200, that looked like a pretty good sale!...but only days later, TLRY was well under $150 and recently traded under $100, so imagine you were that put seller and you are now forced to buy TLRY from another person for $150 a share with the actual price under $100...certainly, for a retail trader, that might be a big hit for someone! (But if it was Goldman who sold the put, this would be a tiny dent for them!)...😎          

My suggestion to LittleShark is to: keep trading costs down...don't buy 10 contracts or any number of contracts if that one trade will eat up all of your dry powder...look at the recent example of WSK where he said he bought 10 contracts and got wiped out for a quick $600 loss....you will rarely see me trading more than 2 or 3 contracts on any one stock symbol trade...if I do go over 3 contracts, it's usually on a lower cost ETF trade where the contracts are relatively low cost.....again, keeping that 1.5% rule in mind....

Now,  the 1.5% rule does not work for everybody...that's my personal comfort level...if someone has a small pot of money, they obviously are going to have to have a larger pain threshold if they are going to make any meaningful trades...so, for someone like LittleShark who wants to trade options, perhaps his threshold is 10% or 20% of his dry powder on any one trade? The point is, each trader should set a limit for how much of their dry powder to risk on any one trade, imho!  If you guessed wrong on one trade, the trick is to make sure you have some dry powder left so you can come back in the next day and trade again for a brighter future....and of course, NO ONE should ever trade with money they need to pay a bill to keep the lights on or to put food on the table....only trade with money that you can afford to lose!    ðŸ˜Ã†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
SPY DAILY CHART....

As I gaze at the SPY chart on an early Sunday morning....I see it closed below the 13 EMA line after getting pushed back by the 200 day line and the BB and Keltner C-lines...and the short term signal from the FAST RSIs is that it's topped out on the current short term trend...and the fast MACD began to pull back on Friday, but that pull back is not yet confirmed by the standard MACD....

But that big red candle on Friday and the push back from the 200/ C-lines does not look bullish to me...but then again, we know that weekends can sometimes change sentiment and Da Boyz are quite capable of turning things around if too many shorts are set up...we know this as the short squeeze....but, aside from the games that Da Boyz might play come Monday morning, I must say, this SPY chart looks bearish to me in the near term...which is why I bought 2 SPY puts on Friday afternoon along with 2 QID calls too...does anyone see things differently?

SPY Daily Chart 

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
QQQ Daily Chart

As I say, I also bought 2 QID calls on Friday afternoon...QID is 2x short the Q's...it's a similar story there...

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
As TRADERS WERE FOCUSED ON THE CHINA TARIFFS...I THINK THEY WERE MISSING SOMETHING ELSE...

And that is the sudden drop in the US long bonds...TLT is the key ETF for trading the long bonds...and TLT fell to a new 52 week low on Friday..and it is technically in a BREAK-DOWN after busting through the previous low....

When bonds are in FREE FALL, that is a scary proposition for stock investors, because it means they can't hide out in bonds when their stocks are not performing well...and that leads to stock sales as well as long bond sales...and investors flee to other havens like short term bonds, money markets or GOLD....

On Friday night, I also purchased 80 shares of TBT in the After Hours....TBT goes higher at 2x the inverse of TLT....
TLT Daily Chart

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ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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PNG
THEN PNG ADDED HIS THOUGHTS...

Also, IMO, one doesn't have to be sitting on a put/call/equity all the time.  Pays to be patient and wait for good entry and pounce on good exit or non-greedy exit or acceptable exit or cut losses exit but exit - especially with options - it will all expire worthless, <often>, if one doesn't do this (exceptions as Ace noted above).  If the market turns on you get out of the way.  Wait for key turns, regardless of personal goals, key is to make trades green - any other non-green trade oriented thinking will eat capital.
 

To qualify this, the above is in the context of the plan that was the basis of the purchase.  If the market behaves in a way you didn't plan then exit as noted, or if the market behaves in the way you did expect, exit as noted.

The hardest part, IMO, is the exit.  Easy to pull the trigger on  purchase (key here is to purchase with a plan - shouldn't be so easy), but, that pesky exit is where emotion comes in to play in a much bigger way.   I've learned and am learning this the hard way, but, when I do this I lose much less on loosing trades.

Copied Ace's comments to "MEMORY LANE - The First Options Trading Board ..."  where the good stuff on options is being collected.

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slamminsam
I was a broker for a couple of years in the late 80's....absolutely no one made money in options by buying them.  The only ones who did OK were the writer of covered calls.  This was a long time ago.  In the long run all the options "players" went broke; the covered call writers made a small percentage and that was OK because the broker made money too with the commissions.  Now.....things are a lot different.  It's best not to get too greedy.  I think ETF's are safer - they don't expire in a month or two.  There were no such things as weekly options in the 80's.  I think there were monthly options, six mo. options and yearly options, believe it or not.  I was trying to tell Lil Shark that he should paper-trade his options trades for awhile and see how he does.....but I guess he ain't interested.  I know this - everyone on this board should be doing very well - if for no other reason the markets have been hitting ALL TIME HIGHS......until the last month or so - then all of a sudden things have change.......but for the last NINE YEARS.....the market has been RUNNING STRONG!  How can one not make big money?  Agreed.

I'm gittin' ready to go to Church.  Talk to you guys later.  At least the sun is out in upstate NY and the fall foliage is starting to come in bloom.   The Slammer
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Littleshark
PNG ,,, thanks for your post on the MEMORY LANE - Options board ... I gave it a thumbs up over there ... & then I read all three parts of ACE's option trading advice that you saved for us over there ... thanks for doing that too ...
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slamminsam
Later on today I'll make a chart showing a trading range and how one should trade options - providing, of course, that the index (or stock) stays within the trading range......a neutral area where you do nothing at all......a buy area (calls).........a sell area (buy puts, or sell covered calls).  I'll try to make it as simple as possible; then all we need is a little cooperation from the markets......The Slammer
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acestocksplayer
[QUOTE username=slamminsam userid=4851661 postid=1306016756]I was a broker for a couple of years in the late 80's....absolutely no one made money in options by buying them.  The only ones who did OK were the writer of covered calls.  This was a long time ago.  In the long run all the options "players" went broke; the covered call writers made a small percentage and that was OK because the broker made money too with the commissions.  Now.....things are a lot different.  It's best not to get too greedy.  I think ETF's are safer - they don't expire in a month or two.  There were no such things as weekly options in the 80's.  I think there were monthly options, six mo. options and yearly options, believe it or not.  I was trying to tell Lil Shark that he should paper-trade his options trades for awhile and see how he does.....but I guess he ain't interested.  I know this - everyone on this board should be doing very well - if for no other reason the markets have been hitting ALL TIME HIGHS......until the last month or so - then all of a sudden things have change.......but for the last NINE YEARS.....the market has been RUNNING STRONG!  How can one not make big money?  Agreed.

I'm gittin' ready to go to Church.  Talk to you guys later.  At least the sun is out in upstate NY and the fall foliage is starting to come in bloom.   The Slammer[/QUOTE]

Sam, no doubt that making money with options is tricky, but a lot things have changed since the 1980's....ðÃâ€Ã‚¦ÃƒÆ’‚¸ÃƒÃ†ÃƒƒÆ’¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¹ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚¦ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Â¦ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…“âââ€Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚°

For one thing, trading costs are way down from the 80's. When I first opened a trading account back in 1990, I was paying some broker about $100 a trade for his commission....my guess is that options trading had similar high commissions, right?....heck, now a person can do an options or stock trade for just a few bucks....

Another thing, back then, I had to place a phone call to my broker to buy or sell anything...now, those trades can be done in a fraction of a second on a mobile app or from a trading platform on your computer-- I don't have to wait in a queue to speak with my broker....so, I think there is a better chance to lock in profits now than there was back then and with the trading platforms we have now, price is very transparent (with Level 2 and so on) compared to back then...I am still suspicious to this day that my broker back then wasn't giving me the best price or even a fair price or quote....

However, I do agree that OPTIONS WRITERS are more likely to make money only because most options that are traded are either at the money or out of the money...most buyers of options buy them at a low cost premium and bet on the come 🎲🎲  ...or they are using options as a hedge against their stock shares to protect against down-side (or upside if they are shorting a stock)....so, for this reason, most options do expire worthless and the seller of those options pockets the money....ðŸ˜Ë†

So, in my own experience, when I am actively trading (meaning the day job isn't consuming a lot of my time), I have proven to myself that I can run a profit with options trading...but the strategy here is to think like the WRITERS of options....either I sell options (those covered calls you spoke of) or if I buy them, I buy my options in-the-money and/or with longer expiry dates, which are the options that WRITERS tend to make fewer profits on....so, again, this has been the lesson I learned over several years of options trading....think like the SELLERS (Writers) do....and I think you can make money with options even if you are buying them, but of course, you still have to time your entry and exit properly too ...(and this is where I have to limit my trading during busy periods at the day job, otherwise, I can't properly time my entries and exits nearly as well)...

Or, become a writer of options, but for most retail traders, this requires selling a covered call which means you have to buy 100 shares of stock for every options contract you sell...or a person can also sell puts but keep in mind that your broker will freeze your account for an amount equal to the strike price...so, for example, a few months ago, i sold a put on an oil stock (BPT) with a $30 strike price and my broker froze $3,000 of my sweep account to cover the cost of selling that put.  ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’ƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ¢â‚¬ ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’¢â‚¬ ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…¡ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’¢â‚¬Å¡ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚°ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ¢â‚¬ ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¦ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…¡ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’¢â‚¬Å¡ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¸ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ¢â‚¬ ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¹ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚¦ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Â¦ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…“Ãâ€Ã‚¦ÃƒÆ’‚½

But options are also useful tools for protecting your investments in stock shares....As an example,  I used them successfully earlier in the year when I rode SQ up from about $28 to $65 with 100 shares of stock...I kept buying an occasional cheap put to protect my downside....and as I recall, my put finally allowed me to exit the SQ trade successfully just shy of the $65 mark...I think around $62 or so (although I missed the next move up which took SQ up toward $100, but that was only because I wasn't focused on that stock after $65)...currently, I own two puts on NIO that I bought at a $7 strike after I paid over $8 for NIO...now, NIO started to rally late last week and it might come back to $8 or more, and that would make me happy...but if that doesn't happen by November 16th, I can exercise those puts and exit my 200 shares of NIO at $7 rather than some beaten down price like $5.50 or worse.. 

Sam, overall, I agree with your comments about options trading...they are tricky devils and if a person is not thinking like the SELLERS of those options, then they will surely lose money over time.  So, that's my point with options...think about what the goals of the SELLERs (WRITERS) are and then buy those options that the writers would prefer you not buy...they still have to sell them to you in order to create a liquid market, and I would venture to say that most in-the-money and long-dated options are sold by the big brokers like Goldman Sachs (click here to learn more!), the House of Morgan, or by Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) [click here to learn more] as most retail sellers of options (and those numbers are very small, incidentally) do not want to sell you ITM or long-dated options, as those are the ones they are more likely to lose money on.   ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’ƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ¢â‚¬ ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’¢â‚¬ ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…¡ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’¢â‚¬Å¡ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚°ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ¢â‚¬ ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¦ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…¡ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’¢â‚¬Å¡ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¸ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ¢â‚¬ ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¹ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’†ÃƒƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚¦ÃƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÃ‚¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Â¦ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…“Ãâ€Ã‚¦ 

Incidentally, I do think that these days, most SELLERs of options make a good income off of them....this is a major reason that Goldman rarely ever has a losing day of trading, because they are selling a lot of options against the stock shares they own...and look at Warren Buffett...he has admitted that a large source of Berkshire Hathaway's income comes from the sale of options contracts....

THINK OF THAT OLD BOARD-GAME, MONOPOLY...The winning strategy of that game was to buy a lot of properties and put hotels and houses on those properties and then charge HIGH RENT everytime an opponent landed on one of your properties.....WELL, the big institutions do the same thing with Options....they buy up most of the stock shares out there in the market...and then they collect RENT while they hold those shares by either LENDING the shares out to the shorts (and collecting interest on the margin loans) or by collecting dividends on those shares and selling options contracts to the sheeples...it's RENT to them...just like in MONOPOLY!  They don't care if the stock shares go up or down...they have it figured that they are  making money regardless of the direction of the stock shares. ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’ƒÃ†Ãƒ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÆ’‚°ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Â¦Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¸ÃƒÃ¢â‚¬Â¹Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“Ž


[monopoly_photoshop_template]
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
Littleshark wrote:
PNG ,,, thanks for your post on the MEMORY LANE - Options board ... I gave it a thumbs up over there ... & then I read all three parts of ACE's option trading advice that you saved for us over there ... thanks for doing that too ...


Thanks for saving those posts, PNG....I have to admit that I have to go back and read my own gibberish some times...I forget these lessons myself until I can go back and re-read them sometimes! It's almost an existential experience to read some of my old posts-- I can hardly believe sometimes that it was I who wrote those posts! Lol. ðŸ˜†
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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Littleshark
Sunday afternoon 11-4-2018>

> On Eve of New U.S. Sanctions, Iranian Regime Whips Up Anti-American Anger 9:46 am ET (Dow Jones)

> UPDATE: Big biotech companies have flushed $100 billion in stock buybacks down the toilet 9:31 am ET (MarketWatch)

>  UPDATE: In sweeping interview, Elon Musk says Tesla will be cash-flow positive 'all quarters going forward' 9:29 am ET (MarketWatch)
...
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CMAC38
Since most everyone probably knows I favor Biotech (specifically emerging biotech) and PM's when not trading 3X etf's here is the link from Littleshark's post above.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-biotech-companies-have-flushed-100-billion-in-stock-buybacks-down-the-toilet-2018-10-30
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acestocksplayer
CHART ANALYSIS....Not all H&S Patterns Have Flat Necklines...

Contrary to some chartists' beliefs, NOT all Head-n-Shoulders patterns require a FLAT NECKLINE...I believe that some traders miss "hidden H&S" patterns when they don't see a flat neckline....

Case example: Look at the CRR Daily chart below...a neckline occurred, but it was slanted in an upward direction, but all the elements were there for an H&S pattern with the LEFT Shoulder (LS), the HEAD (H), and the Right Shoulder (RS)....and just because the Neckline (N) was rising from left to right, didn't make the Neckline any less valid....

And sure enough, when CRR broke down through that rising Neckline, the stock went into a death spiral...and is only now attempting to re-cover  after falling about 30% since the Neckline break....

CRR Daily Chart     

[image]
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
CMAC38 wrote:
Since most everyone probably knows I favor Biotech (specifically emerging biotech) and PM's when not trading 3X etf's here is the link from Littleshark's post above.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-biotech-companies-have-flushed-100-billion-in-stock-buybacks-down-the-toilet-2018-10-30


It's often said by technicians that you can tell the future course of a stock or ETF by looking at the direction and angle of the 50 day line on the chart...in the case of LABU, the 50 day line is in its steepest decline and sharp angle downward since the year 2015 when the ETF was launched...in 2015, LABU fell over $200 from top to bottom!!!....from a high of $238 down to an early 2016 low of $18.94...believe it or not! ðŸ˜–
  
The 50 day line seems to be sending out another warning similar to year 2015...that doesn't mean it can't be day-traded for $5 and $10 pops in a single day as we saw Doc do recently, but the risks also increase that if a trader buys some shares for a quick pop, they might find themselves holding a falling knife....imho.

LABU Daily Chart 

[image]      
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
TWITTER ...

i am sitting on two TWTR calls....I believe I have a modest profit...will have to check that again...

The stock broke up thru the 50 day line and then the 200 day line...the 50 day  was flat and the 200 day was rising, and so the algo's read those as rather easy resistance points to penetrate....but on Thursday and Friday, the price stalled at the 100 day line, which was angled downward....


I don't know yet if I should take profits?  Or hold on? Or maybe sell one call and hold the other one for more gains?

I did notice that in this week's IBD edition, TWTR has moved up to the #3 positon on the IBD 50 list...as high a position as I have seen that stock in my memory! 

TWTR Daily Chart   

[image]  
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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acestocksplayer
SQUARE AND NIO REPORT THIS WEEK....

For NIO, it is their first Earnings Release since going public....maybe a good result could give the stock a lift? They are expected to report a loss, but that was always expected, but investors will be focused on sales growth and expansion plans...

For SQ, it's followers have high expectations....we will have to see if they can deliver good results again?

What does anyone else here think about these two?

NIO daily chart

[image] 


SQ daily chart

[image] 


 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
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PNG


Thanks for saving those posts, PNG....I have to admit that I have to go back and read my own gibberish some times...I forget these lessons myself until I can go back and re-read them sometimes! It's almost an existential experience to read some of my old posts-- I can hardly believe sometimes that it was I who wrote those posts! Lol. Ã°Å¸Ëœâ€ 


The latest monopoly post had to be taylored - all emojii's removed and the monopoly board  - post was too long it said when I tried to post with both or either.
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PNG
SQ, didn't break below 200.  above the BB river midpoint, macd upcross, RSI 50 with positive slope.  Micro level;  macro we all know.  market futures red.  I saw SQ and thought had come down quite a bit.  Arguable has put in a double bottom (Oct 11, 30)

NIO is a dice roll short term - in the lower part of the river.  Depends some on what the Chinese markets do after they realize Trump's statement about a deal was a tweet and not concrete.
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Littleshark
CRR ,,, don't catch a falling knife until it is laying safely on the floor > http://schrts.co/x4Cjnj ,,, < see the "floor" in early Oct. ,,, the early Oct. H&S is not a floor pattern > http://schrts.co/x4Cjnj ,,, but the "W" now could be ...
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Littleshark
... http://schrts.co/SmnCzN TWTR ,,, selling one CALL at a profit ,,, the banked profit would give some protection of principal if held the other CALL through earnings ...

... http://schrts.co/nvzpKW TWTR ,,, gap above resistance ? ,,, actually that is a double gap going back to June 4 ~ gap below for support ~ pick your poison ... neither one is bullish as described above ...
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PNG
That's the 😏 M&M H&S LS - lots of M's in that big H&S - the big one - from April till it broke down.

LABU also had nested H&Ss - that's a varient too.  Couple of H&Ss on LABU depending on timeframe.
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