acestocksplayer
I have been tracking this system I developed which attempts to predict how the US equity markets will open the next day based on certain chart signals found on the VIX and VIX-ETF charts. On the S&P - Nasdaq board, I have kept a daily record of the system. Overall, for the first 3 months, the system has shown a capacity to predict the next day's open on the S&P 500 index with about a 63% accuracy (and only a 34% total miss accuracy). If one believes that no one can accurately predict the next day's opening prices from 18 hours before, then this would mean that one should expect ony a 50% accuracy rate (at random rate)-- in other words, no better than a coin flip.

The system also attempts to call the open of the VIX index and its ETFs/ETNs the next day. Both calls come from one signal. ÃƒÆ’°Å¸Ëœâ€°

So, why attempt to do this at all? What value is there to such a system? First off, who hasn't been caught before with net long positions only to suffer whiplash when the markets open down big the next morning? There is a gut-wrenching feeling when one's stocks are dropping like a rock and you can't get out easily without suffering a large loss. The idea behind the VOSS is to help a trader take up defensive positions (not necessarily selling all of their long positions), such as buying a VIX ETF/ ETN or SPY puts to provide a hedge in case the markets do tumble the next morning. In so doing, the net long trader can keep their long positions intact while riding out the short term volatility.

So, how have I done with this system? First off, it's not perfect. I have lost money by buying VIX products that lost money the next morning--or vice versa, I lost money when the markets opened lower  and the system predicted a higher open ...but in many cases, the losses were small because the volatiLity was weak, and so I held the the VIX positions until the positions became profitable later that day or the next day. And here's another important point, and that is my VIX positions are kept relatively small compared to my net long positions, so that if VIX is lower the next morning, then that probably means my long positions are higher, and the returns on my long positions will more than offset my short position with the "Vixens." So, this allows me to exit the Vix position and continue to ride my winners higher without damage. Also, it's far less costly to buy and sell one position in the Vixens than to sell a bunch of long postions which cost me money in trading costs as well as leave me to miss the next bounce or rally.     

Also, I have had at least a few days where the system definitely worked when stocks were swooning overnight-- I realized several hundred dollars on my VIX trades and on one occasion, over a $1,200 profit overnight...and I don't trade large positions in VIX products...typically, I purchase the equivalent of about 100 shares of TVIX or UVXY at around $30 to $40 a share. On some occasions, to keep my capital investment low, I have purchased call contracts instead of the stocks themselves. Overall, my VIX trades have been net profitable.

I am always looking to refine the system to make it work better, but for now, it's done much better than a bunch of random coin flips. The system is based on a theory that I believe in that "the smart money" typically assumes its offensive or defensive position in the final minutes of most trading days. This theory is based on some facts: such that mutual funds, hedge funds and large institutional funds make their major trades late in the day. This is a known fact because the large funds (especially mutual funds which tend not to do much machine-hyper trading to hide their big trades) will broadcast their large trade intentions earlier in the trading day to the market makers and specialists who are then tasked with finding available supply or demand to pull off the trades before the end of the day. Then, most of the large trades take place in the last 20 minutes of the typical trading day. So, if the big traders anticipate greater volatility the next day, they are more likely to buy up VIX positions late on the day before. Further to the point, volume on the Vix products often is highest at the end of day, and since most retail traders do not commonly trade these products, I can only assume the heavy end of day volume is that of the smart money.  Indeed, this is how I first spotted the pattern, as I have trained my eyes over the years to watch for successful patterns on the charts.

I hope some viewers find this thread to be useful. I intend to keep tracking the system each day on this board, and I also intend to track shorter time frames at times to see how the system performs at certain times of the year or trading cycle. MEMBERS ARE WELCOME TO OFFER UP QUESTIONS OR SUGGESTIONS ABOUT THE VOSS SYSTEM HERE, AND I WILL ATTEMPT TO RESPOND WHEN APPROPRIATE. ÃƒÆ’°Å¸ËœÅ½
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
With the VOSS, I typically trade with TVIX or UVXY when the system calls to go long...today is September 29th, 2018 and the next trading day will occur on October 1st.

In roughly the first 3 months that I have tracked the VOSS, it has made 37 correct calls (wins), 23 missed calls (losses) and 7 mixed results. To clarify, a win occurs when the system correctly predicts BOTH the opening prices of the S&P 500 and the VIX products such as TVIX and UVXY.  (37-23-7)

For the month of September only, the system suffered with a record of 7 wins/ 7 losses/ 3 mixed results...basically I could have done no worse than a coin flip!
A miss (loss) occurs when both the S&P 500 and the Vix products open the opposite of what the system predicts. 

Mixed Results occur when one or the other (S&P 500 or Vix) open the opposite of what the VOSS calls for. So, for example, if VOSS predicts a lower S&P open and a higher VIXENS open, but only one of the two events occurs as predicted, that is a Mixed Result. 

As for the system itself, it is based on a 5 minutes chart of the Vixens. I typically look to the these three charts: TVIX, UVXY and $VIX for the signal. On most days, all three will agree one way or the other. However, on some days, there will be mixed signals. Generally, I look to $VIX, the index chart, for any tie-breakers. 

The 5 minutes chart uses three moving average lines, those being the 12 MA, the 48 MA and the 72 MA lines. I also look at MACD for any secondary signals to confirm the trend signal that I see on the charts. I typically use a 5 day view of the 5 minutes chart to spot any longer term trends over several days, though typically, a trend that's lasted about 3 days is likely to reverse on the 4th or 5th day, and so I watch for that in case the signal is contradictory.  

TVIX 5 minutes chart (5 day view)

[image] 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
Littleshark
Ace ,,, 3 misses in a row is an rare opportunity IMO ...

find out why the misses occurred >

> are the correct calls when price is trending either up or down ???

> or are the correct calls at tops & bottoms ?

> or are all the misses at tops & bottoms ???

> or are all the misses when the markets are trending in a steady direction ?

> or are all the misses when the Markets fall into a sideways pattern ... that seems to be the case the last 3 days on http://schrts.co/aXij5K SPX ...

Since your VOSS is based on volatility ,,, the hits or the misses mat be connected to that ...

Sammy said that volume gets real low at bottoms ='s low price movement & therefore low price day range producing low volatility ,,, low volatility might make it hard for the VOSS to be accurate on those days ?

now if the BIG BOYS really do know when the top & bottom turns will happen in advance ,,, then your VOSS may be picking up their moves as they reposition just ahead of the turn events ... is that when the VOSS is most accurate ? or least accurate ?

Only you can check to see if any of the above is actually a pattern for the hits or the misses ...

if you find one that does repeat consistently ... that should lead to you increasing the accuracy of the predictions IMO ...

Hypothetical example: ... VOSS missed 3 days while markets were going sideways 3 days ...

IF ? back testing now shows that all the misses were on days when the Markets were going sideways ... then your VOSS success ratio just approaches 100% ='s delete any days when the market is going sideways & VOSS should be at 100% correct calls whenever the Markets are trending ... simply only buy based on the VOSS when the Markets are trending then for a 100% win rate ...

Just an example of how the win ratio may hit 100% if you can find the actual real pattern that caused the misses ,,, and eliminate those days from trading the VOSS ...




hope this helps channel your thinking into a positive direction producing positive results for you ...
Quote 0 0
CMAC38
Just to state the obvious. Any system based off of market direction such as the Vixens being based on the S&P is going to be wrong the next trading day if a significant overnight/pre-market event occurs that impacts market direction. Those reversals cannot be mathematically foreseen as they just happen when they happen.  What is the prediction accuracy when you take those days out of % formulation?  My opinion, it goes up. How much would be of interest as it is the underlying success % of your system.

In any event the system you created is a valuable tool when trading Vixens.  Thanks for all you share ACE.
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
Hi guys, thanks for comments and criticisms...this is still an exercise to find a workable system that can be at least 70% predictive...

I do feel it's better than a random guess, which would be no better than random coin flips....😇

I will study your comments as I try to find other clues that might make the system work better....yes, CMAC, in cases where overnight news changed everything, that is often when the signal went "wrong"....

I have thought about looking at the daily candle on the SPX or SPY chart in comparison to the VOSS signal to see if there is some correlation that might help...for instance, a black daily candle might reduce the confidence level of a bullish VOSS signal, or a bullish hammer candle might nullify a bearish VOSS signal? These are things I have thought about incorporating into the signal, if I can find a more predictive pattern by doing so.


BTW, the VOSS predicts a higher S&P open for Monday and a lower Vixens open...FWIW!
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
Littleshark
No criticism Ace ... just possible options to explore ... VOSS is gonna be one heck of a System once perfected to your satisfaction ...

NEWS is the one thing that can trump any chart pattern or trend ...

In addition to candlesticks ... also try http://schrts.co/EVdCWQ day closes to see how VOSS did right at tops & bottoms on a day closing basis ~ since you take your VOSS signals from right at the day close ='s apples to apples ... ,,, ... intraday on the Candlesticks would be oranges to apples IMO ...
Quote 0 0
Littleshark
Ace ,,, I don't want a higher S&P open Monday ,,, but Sam told me I can't have what I want ~ he said I have to play the hand the Market deal ,,, sigh LOL ...

My chart http://schrts.co/ny7Wze SPY ,,, is in system wait and watch mode ,,, the System has "zoned" the 9-26 candle body as support since it is the 2nd candle of the most recent "3 candlestick Reversal(3CR)" pattern ... and the System is waiting & watching for which way price breaks out of the support zone ...

Let's zoom in & try some http://schrts.co/e5E2UA standard chart indicator settings with Sammy's HLC bars & Sammy's 3ma added as the green line ...

Now I am curious what LAKE looks like in that chart view http://schrts.co/6RVxUw ...
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
THE VOSS HAD A WINNING CALL FOR MONDAY.....

The S&P opened higher and the Vixens lower.....

Now the record is 38 wins....23 losses....7 mixed results.

The call for Tuesday's open is slightly bullish....but there was a huge spike in VIX the last 30 minutes on Monday night except the final 5 minute candle closed below the 12 ma line...but only the 12....otherwise, the signal was quite bearish....

And the overnight futures are quite RED at Dow -88....
So, this might be something I can modify in the rules....if a huge spike the last 15 minutes or so is settled with a drop below one MA line at the final candle, perhaps I should still call that a bearish signal instead of a slightly bullish one?

But I can think of at least 2 or 3 examples where the last candle drop did prove to be a bullish signal after all.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
For Tuesday morning, the VOSS signal had a miss.....

The miss was small and last night's signal was slightly bullish, but not by much.....so, the signal was fairly accurste because it anticipated a tight open with no clear direction.....

There was a big spike last night that only relented in the last 5 minutes...So, I need to look at other examples to see if I can sharpen the signal based on the big spike and drops lthat occur late in a session.

The VOSS record is now 38 wins/ 24 losses / 7 mixed results.

For Wednesday morning, the signal is slightly bullish for the S&P thanks to a last minute collapse in the Vixen prices at the close.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
ON Wednesday, October 3rd, the VOSS made  a correct call...

The S&P opened higher and the Vixens opened lower. The VOSS record is now 39 wins/ 24 losses/ 7 mixed results.

The call for Thursday's open is for a higher open. However, the overnight futures don't look promising with the Dow at -103. 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
VOSS update for Thursday, October 4th....

A miss on today's open...the S&P opened lower and the Vixens opened higher....

The record is now 39-25-7.

The VOSS is calling for a higher S&P open for Friday....perhaps the monthly Jobs Report will feed into that? 🤔
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
On Friday, October 5th....

The VOSS made a winning call about the open....

The S&P opened slightly higher...and the Vixens opened lower....

Keep in mind this system is meant to call the opening price each morning....after that, the system claims to have no predictive power....after about 5 minutes of trading, the S&P began a rapid descent for the rest of the day...and the Vixens shot up to new highs....

But as far as the open goes, the system made the correct call....

  • The VOSS record is now 40 wins, 25 losses and 7 mixed results over about 3 months of time....

The system is now calling for a higher S&P open on the next trading day after the Columbus Day weekend....after two crushing days of lossed by the major stock averages, I think the Bulls will be relieved to hear that the VOSS is leaning in their favor as far as the next open goes! Ã°Å¸Ëœâ€š
However, keep in mind that this system is slightly less accurate over a weekend's time.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
On MONDAY, COLUMBUS DAY...OCTOBER 8TH

The VOSS had a miss...it was calling for a higher S&P open....wrong!

The S&P opened lower and the Vixens opened higher...of course, I have often said the signal is less reliable after a weekend....

So, the Voss record is now 40-26-7.

The signal is somewhat Bullish for Tuesday's open....we shall see.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
On Tuesday, the VOSS had another miss!

The record is now 40-27-7. 

For Wednesday's open, the VOSS is bearish. The VOSS as it's presently devised (and always open to suggestions on how to improve it!) on a simple premise... 

The closing price  each day on the 5 minutes chart of TVIX and UVXY must finish above the 12 EMA, the 48 EMA and the 72 EMA lines in order to declare a lower open for the S&P 500 the next morning (and also to declare a higher open for the Vixens). If the VOSS doesn't finish above all 3 of those lines, then it is more likely that the S&P will open higher, and generally, the Vixens will open lower....

However, there have been some mixed signals when the VOSS finishes above one or two of those EMA lines but not all 3. As I have said before, the system is still under development and not ready for prime time. I use this board to keep track of the movements and the record...and hopefully this record will allow US to spot a way to make the system more accurate.

TVIX 5 minutes chart

[image] 



 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
UPDATE ON VOSS...

The VOSS has scored 3 wins in a row! It predicted the big selloff on Wednesday and again on Thursday (October 10th and 11th)....

And then it predicted the strong recovery on Friday (Oct. 12th)....

So, the VOSS Record is now...

43 WINS-- 27 LOSSES-- 7 Mixed Results

Discounting the 7 mixed results, the VOSS has made 61.4% of its calls correctly....

Viewed another way, if we include the 7 mixed results, we can say that the VOSS has had a total miss only 35% of the time... (27 losses out of 77 chances)...

Now, if the VOSS did not have some predictive powers, then I would expect no more than about a 50% accuracy record...no better than a coin flip!

A total miss means that both the Vixens and the S&P 500 opened in the opposite direction that the Signal predicted. 

A total win means that both the Vixens and the S&P 500 opened in the same direction that the Signal predicted.

FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 15TH, THE VOSS IS PREDICTING THE S&P 500 will open HIGHER and the VIXENS will open lower....but keep in mind that the Signal can be a little less reliable on a weekend. 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
MICHAEL SANTOLI OF CNBC MADE A VERY INTERESTING OBSERVATION ON TWO DIFFERENT OCCASIONS THIS WEEK....

He said that some market pros on Wall Street view "a 3 point or more pullback from a VIX spike top" as being a BULLISH Signal...

Well, that fits in somewhat with what the VOSS Signal is all about....and on Thursday night (October 11th), the $VIX did pull back more than 3 points from its intra-day high which had been a big spike...and so he said the Bulls were likely to take control on Friday...and he was right!

BTW, the VOSS Signal was also right about that call!

I found this interesting piece on some of the trading characteristics of VIX....a good read here! Worth clicking this one, I think! ðŸ˜‰  

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE TRADING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE $VIX  (fOLLOWING SIGNS THAT OTHERS IGNORE) 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
CMAC38
ACE,   on your VOSS chart, today price closed well below the 12ma on all 4 charts. Last candle on each was a white hammer type or very near with a tail. MACD on each was stepping up the last bar from flat or previous rising bars depending on setting. StochRSI 's are under 30.
Your call was for Vixens down at opening. So even though the VOSS is calling down Vixen opening, one should be watching closely for the Vixens to bounce.
Or since it is a weekend, would it be better to call it by the higher looking odds that the last candle is signaling a Vixen bottom?
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
CMAC38.....

Thanks for your observations....that is what I am looking for! Yes, I see that last MACD bar rising and the last candle was marking a change in direction.

As of 9:30 ET Sunday night, the US futures are decidedly negative and contrary to the "Buy the S&P" signal that the system produced on Friday....

There is still 12 hours until Wall Street opens and so anything can still happen. So, you may have found an exception to the rule and let us see if the results change what happens.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
THE VOSS HAD A SMALL MISS ON MONDAY....

It was bullish for Monday's open, but a late pre-market rally fell short.

The VOSS record is now 43 wins - 28 LOSSES and 7 mixed results.

Keep in mind the VOSS is less reliable over a weekend....

For Tuesday, I watched for the VOS Signal, and one weak one did appear in the final minute of trading.....though TVIX and UVXY fell short of the Signal by one penny, VXX did send out the Signal by beating its 12, 48 and 72 MA lines for the day on the 5 minutes chart..TVIX beat its72 line by one cent. Both TVIX and UVXY fell 1 penny short of their 72 MA lines but easily beat their 12 and 48 lines.....

So, I think VOSS is bearish for tomorrow's open, but only mildly so....
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
For today (Weds.) The VOS signal was bullish. That turned out to be the correct call...but barely....markets sank rapidly after the first minute of trading...but the signal did make the correct call, technically.

Yesterday, the bearish signal was wrong, but as I said on Monday night, the signal was weak....still, a loss is a loss if I am going to evaluate and develop this system properly...

Taking into account the last 2 days, the record of Voss is 44-29-7.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
For Thursday's open, the VOSS is bullish....

However, I should point out that the daily QQQ and SPY charts look bearish, but keep in mind the VOSS only attempts to call the next day's open and not the entire trading day.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
slamminsam
Ace:  Question about the VOSS - I just looked at VXX and it looks like the last two hours the VXX had bearish volume.....which is bad for VXX, but good for stocks and tomorrow's opening.  Am I interpreting this right, or are there more factors.  Also, the MACD indicator looks bearish for the VXX - which means bullish for stox.  Thanks for your help.  Slammin Sam
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
As of the week of October 22nd, I have suspended my tracking of the Voss Signal...

It has become inconsistent as it currently is constructed...in the last month or more, it's been not much better than 50% accuracy...

I think what I have noticed is that Voss is more consistent in a calm market, but during periods of greater volatility like now, it's not much more accurate than a coin flip.

So, for now, I am suspending my tracking of the signal officially, although I still personally use it to help me make my decisions for the next day, but it's not the main focus of my buying decisions for Vix during this period....

At least I do have a lengthy track record now (3 months plus) for VOSS over different types of trading periods....the signal works quite well during very stable trading periods with about 70% accuracy from what I saw...

So, I will continue to think about refining it...and perhaps I should not be using it to simply rate the next day's open, but more as signal for the overall next day's trading activity, because I noticed that sometimes, it got the open call wrong but got the overall results for the entire day correctly. 

So, at this time of the suspension, the Voss showed an overall record of 44 correct calls, 29 incorrect calls and 7 mixed results. The overall percentage right was 61.3% and the total misses were as low as 35.3% (total wrong vs. total correct + mixed results). That was better than a coin flip, and so I think there is some merit to the system, but I need to go back to the drawing board and see if I can tweak it somehow to make it more accurate....my goal would be 70% accuracy which would make for consistent profits over time.
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
slamminsam wrote:
Ace:  Question about the VOSS - I just looked at VXX and it looks like the last two hours the VXX had bearish volume.....which is bad for VXX, but good for stocks and tomorrow's opening.  Am I interpreting this right, or are there more factors.  Also, the MACD indicator looks bearish for the VXX - which means bullish for stox.  Thanks for your help.  Slammin Sam


Sam, volume is among the things that the system did not consider...as I say, it's still an experiment in the making, and so volume is something that perhaps I can incorporate into the VOSS to make it more consistent. As I said in the post above, I know I need to refine the system and find rules like volume, that might make it work more consistently. Thanks for your input, and of course, members are welcome to fool around with this system and perhaps they can find a better tweak to it that could make it more predictive? Thanks!   
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0
acestocksplayer
SLAMMIN' SAM ASKED....

Ace:  Just wondering about the VOSS Signal.  At the end of the day it signals how the mkt will open the next day, right?  After the mkt opens......how long is this signal supposed to last?  A half hour, hour, all morning, all day, etc.  What do you say?

If it lasts for only a very short period of time.....what good is it?  If it is a longer term signal.....then it would be more beneficial.  Thanks for your explanation.

The Slammer
ACE replied...

SAM, the VOSS only attempts to predict the opening price of $VIX which is the very first trade of the day....and generally, it also attempts to predict if the first trade of the day for $SPX will be higher or lower than the previous day's close. This is because the $VIX is a measure of put options vs call options on the $SPX...so, it is an indication directly correlated to the S&P (and not to QQQ) which is important, because lately, we have seen the Q's trading down a lot even as SPX has some up days....   

So, what good is it? Well, I can understand that question and I have been asked that before....I can only say that if I buy the Vixens the night before, the signal gives me some confidence that my purchase will be higher by the first trade of the next day...but after that, a trader has to monitor the intra-day charts to decide if it is worth holding the trade longer or bailing....many times, the TREND is established, and so if the signal is bearish the night before and the $SPX is down by 1% at the next day's open, then the TREND may carry the SPX lower yet....maybe down another 1/2% by mid-morning before it bottoms...and if so, the VOSS gets me in to the market short the night before to capture the full 1.5% gain instead of only 0.5%....

Though the signal is not perfect by any means, it has given me a decided advantage on several over night trades where I made several hundred dollars profits because I jumped on a VIXENS trade the night before instead of waiting for the next morning when everyone else is jumping in after they see the futures falling by a lot...

Of course, it has worked against me a few times too when the signal was off....

I don't use the signal as the only criteria....I view it as one of several signals I look at....for instance, the VOSS was bullish for Friday morning, but my read of the SPY and QQQ daily charts was bearish, and i decided to buy a SPY put and go a bit bearish for Friday morning....and it turned out that I was right to over-rule the VOSS signal for Friday morning.... 

Sam, in response to your comment about "What Good Is It?":  ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’ƒÃ‚°Ã…¸Ëœœ I have tried to find a correlation to calling the next day's overall action, and though there is some correlation, the correlation is not strong enough to call it a system for that.... and quite frankly, on many days (especially lately) VIX and the SPX will go higher and lower SEVERAL TIMES in a DAY....so, what signal could call that from the day before? ÃƒÆ’°Å¸â„¢â€ž

At least the VOSS seems to have about a 60% to 65% accuracy at calling the opening trade on the next day...and during low periods of volatility, the signal is usually stronger, in the low 70% area as I have seen....

The signal is based on the VERY LAST TRADE of the previous day...and what I look for is to see if the last price exceeded ALL three MA lines on my 5 minutes VIXENs charts...which are the 12 MA, the 48 MA and the 72 MA lines....when that happens, then that is a BEARISH signal for the next day's open...On a 5 minutes chart, the 12 MA is equal to one hour of trades...the 48 MA is equal to about 1/2 day of trading activity...and the 72 MA is roughly equal to a full day of trades....
 
If the VIXENS fail to get above all 3 MA lines, then from what I have seen, that is generally bullish or at least market neutral....so, as an example. if the VIXENs finish above two of the three MA lines, that is still slightly bullish...but the next day's open might be pretty close to neutral....generally, though not always, when the VIXENS finish below all three MA lines, I have noticed the next day's open for the SPX can be quite higher (bullish)... 

TVIX 5 Minutes Chart

[image]  
 
 
ALL OPINIONS, IDEAS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE BY ANONYMOUS PEOPLE. NEVER ACCEPT ANY COMMENTARY ON THIS FORUM OR WEBSITE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS CONSULT A LICENSED BROKER OR REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS.   

Enjoy the forum! Thanks, Mike
Quote 0 0